From New Hampshire.

So the polling is starting to fly fast and furious on this suddenly wintry day in the Granite State. But there’s another poll just released that could be of more interest to those following the Dem race. Quinnipiac has a new post-Iowa sounding out showing that nationally Hillary Clinton’s lead over Bernie Sanders is down to 44%-42%. If that is not an outlier it would and should be of huge concern to the Clinton campaign. Remember that Obama did not pass Hillary in the national polls until 30 days after Iowa.

The problem for Bernie is that it probably is an outlier.  The other three polls that have data collected in whole or in part post-caucuses all have Hillary over 50 and Bernie under 40. So, everyone needs to calm down on that one. But let’s look at the New Hampshire polls, six of which have come out in the last 48 hours on D side and seven on the R side. 

Right now Bernie is still cruising along with a comfortable lead (18 points in the RCP average, 19 in the pollster.com aggregate). Keep in mind though that none of this new polling reflects any changes of heart that might have occurred after last night’s televised slug fest or the previous night’s town hall. My instincts tell me this is bound to tighten a bit, but that won’t show up until the next polls come out, if it’s going to happen at all.

Also, the folks I talk to here, long time observers of the political scene in New Hampshire, seem to agree with my impression that Hillary’s field operation is superior to Bernie’s. She’s been organizing for months. That’s one factor that could skew the polls. The other is the weather. There is currently a forecast for another winter storm on Tuesday. Since Hillary’s supporters tend to be older, I would give the edge to Bernie’s younger more dedicated followers to show up. On the other hand, Hillary’s strength should be in Manchester and Nashua, both cities in Merrimack County, which provided her with strongest support in 2008. Easier to turn out voters in the city than in rural areas.

I won’t lock in any predictions yet, but I think it still looks like a solid win for Bernie at this point.

On the R side, Rubio does appear to have gotten a bump out of Iowa and Trump is doing a slight fade, though it is not significant yet. He’s still leading by 16 points in both the RCP average and the pollster.com aggregate.  Trump’s field organization remains limp and Rubio is not said to have much of one either. Cruz, on the other hand, has built a decent organization and that should count for something as Iowa showed.

In fact, in Iowa it was worth almost an 8 point swing. Think about it. In Iowa, Cruz was fading and down 4.7 points to Trump. He won by 3.3. The polls were not wrong, it was was a triumph of Cruz’s GOTV execution. Now, a good ground game will be a larger factor in a caucus state than in a primary state because the organizational challenges are greater for caucuses.

Again, too early to bolt down any predictions–need to see more polls first–but as things stand now Trump should be able to withstand a withering assault from a good GOTV effort so long as his lead stays north of 10 or so.  If Rubio continues to rise, that could shake things up as well.

More later.