From New Hampshire.

Okay, kind of a shorthand post here because I want to get back out on the doors.

Here’s what seems to be obvious from from knocking on doors this week in Conord, talking to staff and other canvassers. You only see, with any regularity, literature from four candidates left on the doorsteps here. Those would be Sanders, Clinton, Bush and Kasich.

This is notable not because door lit is so persuasive. It’s notable because you need foot soldiers to get the lit on the doors and those are the people who get your vote out. It was Cruz’s ground game in Iowa that put him over the top. He doesn’t seem to have one here; neither does Trump, neither does Rubio.

Therefore I think both Kasich and Bush will outperform their poll numbers today. I think Kasich will give Trump a run for his money, but ultimately I don’t think he’s got enough to overcome the large gap between them in their poling numbers. So I’m calling it Trump, Kasich and a scramble for third between Cruz, Rubio and Bush. I met some nice Jeb canvassers out on the streets today, so I’ll go with Jeb for third. But it’s pretty much of a toss up once you get past Trump and Kasich.