With Trump’s overwhelming victories in South Carolina and the Nevada caucuses, we are now, incredibly enough, seeing a raft of articles cropping up about why he might actually win, whether he can be stopped, how he might be stopped (and here and here).  Folks, listen up. It’s over. This is all just smoke billowing out of the media furnace.

Your Election Junkie, wearing his little Number Monkey hat, has done the math for you and barring something approaching a black swan event (okay, a bit overly dramatic, but you get the idea), there’s nothing that is going to keep Trump from being crowned the Republican nominee.

First, consider that Nevada is a state that is a pretty good bellwether for how other moderate states might perform in the Republican primary. It’s a swing state, there are folks of color there (granted, probably more of a factor on the D side). Santorum did not do all that well there in 2012, nor did Huckabee in 2008. In fact, the state chose Romney over McCain that year.

Bush, a so-called establishment moderate, drops out of the race and do the other so-called moderates benefit from this? No, they don’t. Granted, Bush did not have a lot of support to distribute, but there is no denying that the big bump from polling to results was won Trump–seven(!) points from 39% to 46%. The race narrows and Trump gains the most? Not a good scenario for the rest of the field.

But back to the real math that matters. Trump is currently leading the polls in every state that’s been polled but three: New Mexico, Utah and Texas (in which recent polls have him tied with Cruz who’s playing on his home field). He’s leading Kasich in Ohio, Rubio in Florida and he’s leading in Illinois–all winner-take-all states.  He leads by double digits in New Jersey, New York, Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts (+34), Vermont, North Carolina, Michigan, West Virginia, Arizona and Pennsylvania. He leads in Oklahoma, Wisconsin. All of these polls have been taken within the last month, most within the last week or so.

Even being generous to both Cruz and Rubio–that is, inflating their numbers well beyond what the polls show them running–my calculations give Trump around 1300 delegates while, combined, Rubio and Cruz only get to 1000 at best. But what if it becomes a two person race, you ask? What if it all comes down to Trump vs Rubio or Cruz? Well that’s not going to happen before Super Tuesday, and most likely not until after the March 15th races. Trump will be walking out of Super Tuesday with at least 300 delegates and will have over 700 on March 16.

Polling shows that about one-third of Cruz’s and Rubio’s supporters will go to the other candidate should one drop out. But about a fourth of Cruz’s supporters have Trump as their second choice and about one-fifth of Rubio’s do. Let’s run Florida in a two person race–Trump vs. Rubio. We’ll use an average of the aggreagates from pollster and fivethirtyeight. Roughly, that would put the candidates in these posistions:

Trump: 37
Cruz: 18
Rubio: 16
Carson: 5.5
Kasich: 2
Und: 21.5

Let’s give Trump one third of Cruz and the rest and give Rubio two-thirds of it. (This assumes the undecideds break the way the rest of the pack does. Nevada gives us reason to believe, however, that the undecideds actually break more toward Trump.) That would roughly break down to a 52%-48% victory for Trump over Rubio. In Florida. Rubio’s home state. While the numbers look a little better for Rubio in a two person race in Illinois or Ohio, I think it extremely unlikely that either Cruz or Rubio drops out before March 15.

At that point, Trump there will only be around 875 delegates left to be pledged. Best case scenario for Cruz at that point is 340 delegates, for Rubio 290. Winning all of the rest of the pledged delegates wouldn’t put either one over the number needed to be nominated: 1237.

So the only way Trump could lose this, in my view, would be in an open convention situation in which he does not receive enough votes on the first ballot to win. That would be a black swan event. But what fun that would be! We can always hope.