Just about everybody thinks so–believes Jeb’s campaign is deader than a Dickens’ coffin nail. I’m inclined to agree. The only one who is projecting a sunny optimism about his chances is, well, Jeb. But it’s worth taking a look at under just what circumstances he could survive through to the GOP convention.  This will depend, in the first instance, entirely on the amount of oxygen sucked up by the two current front runners, Trump and Cruz–which will determine whether a third “establishment” lane opens up at all in this nomination process. But before getting into a deeper discussion on that score, let’s illustrate just how unprecedented a real run at the money would be at this point for Brother Bush the Younger.

Here are the polling figures for Jeb compared to the last two GOP nominees, synchronized to reflect days before and after Iowa.  Now it’s true that both the McCain and Romney campaigns lingered in the middling doldrums for a considerable amount of time before finally finding their wings. But by Iowa at least they were both polling over twenty percent.Read More »