Clare Malone over a fivethirtyeight, takes a look at the ground games in Iowa. Though they are not making any headway to speak of, those who have won it before are the most heavily invested in the retail end of things there. Most events held and most days on the ground? Santorum. Runner-up? Huckabee. They understand what it takes to win…but don’t have what it takes to win.  Note photo at left of one of Santorum’s meeting with three–count ’em, three, voters. To be fair this was taken last June when interest in the caucuses was non-existent. Still, for a guy who’s had over 200 events in the state and been on the ground himself there longer than anyone else, you’d think he’d at least be able to poll over 5%.

Both of these campaigns are wet matches and the only unanswered question is whether they throw in the towel before the caucuses or after. Rubio thinks he can win it from the TV (which will not work) and Bush is working hard not to embarrass himself to the extent that he loses all hope, to the extent there’s any left, of doing well in New Hampshire. And apparently Trump has a ground game there. Who knew? But the real heavy investments are on the Dem side.

Republican most likely to succeed? For my money, it’s Cruz. He’s working hard to line up the evangelicals, has a lot of true believers who are fervently beating the bricks, is getting important endorsement and is surging in the polls.  But, has he surged too soon? In 2012, Santorum made his move in the last 10 days. Huckabee, though, showed in 2008 that you can seize the lead earlier, maintain it through the onslaught of the media saturation and come out with a victory. This is Cruz’s model.

But we won’t know anything for sure until the mid-January polls are released. If Cruz is still riding high then, kiss it good-bye. He’ll “Cruz” to a win. And if Jeb has not made a move in Iowa or New Hampshire by then, his minute, flickering ember of hope goes stone cold. It will be interesting to see how long he’ll let himself dangle.

Anyway, worth a read.

(Post edited 2 January 2016)