Clare Malone over a fivethirtyeight, takes a look at the ground games in Iowa. Though they are not making any headway to speak of, those who have won it before are the most heavily invested in the retail end of things there. Most events held and most days on the ground? Santorum. Runner-up? Huckabee. They understand what it takes to win…but don’t have what it takes to win.  Note photo at left of one of Santorum’s meeting with three–count ’em, three, voters. To be fair this was taken last June when interest in the caucuses was non-existent. Still, for a guy who’s had over 200 events in the state and been on the ground himself there longer than anyone else, you’d think he’d at least be able to poll over 5%.

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Answer: not all that super this time around. Or rather, a little more super than the last one and a lot less super than the one two elections ago. Here’s why.Read More »

If history is any guide, next week we should see a spate of polls released marking the presidential candidates’ standing in Iowa, in New Hampshire and nationally. January 4 marks the “4-week out” period from D-Day in Iowa. That is, it is T minus 28 days from the caucuses in that state, set this election for February 1. During corresponding periods in 2008 and 2012, there were at least five national polls released in each of those elections.

This is the first in a series of articles that will examine the 2016 race for president. Since, by far, the most interesting and convoluted contest lies on the R side of the fence, the Republican nomination free-for-all will be my initial and probably primary focus for these writings. I’ll be viewing a lot of this through an historical lens and examining factors shaping the outcome and candidates—in other words, a lot of compare and contrast.

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